Jay Midnyte

jay,

In fact Ahmadinejad is a relatively stupid guy. His statements about the international oil market demonstrate a stunning ignorance of the only meaningful source of revenue available to his country.

He knows nothing about capitalism or how free markets work. He's never been involved with either. He also has no understanding of forces that affect currency values around the world.

He also is too stupid to see the pendulum is about to begin its swing in the other direction, a direction that will lead to lower oil prices and a declining dependence on middle east oil.

Don't forget that this lying screwball also claims the Holocaust did not happen. What's your belief? Ahmadinejad said the Holocaust didn't happen. Do you believe him?

jay,

Ahmadinejad is stupid, yes. He said the Holocaust did not happen. Do you agree with him? Or not?

But his Holocaust Denial is not evidence of his stupidity -- it's evidence of his ignorance and his deep hatred of Jews.

His stupidity shows when he issues threats to the world. He threatens the existence of Israel, in part, because he is too dumb to realize an attack on Israel means the end of Iran in which he lives. An attack on Israel would result in a counterstrike in which he would probably die. But he is too dumb to see the obvious. He is stupid.

Ron Paul is essentially a Libertarian. Libertarians believe in minimal government and I share many of their views.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve attempts to keep the economy moving along. The key concern for many years has been "inflation". For the last few decades, the Fed has acted to keep inflation low because that seems to be the best strategy for overall economic health in the US economy.

But the Fed does not control Global Oil Prices. It does not control Domestic Oil Consumption. It really controls little more than Short-Term Interest Rates.

As far as future oil prices are concerned, you show the usual naivete of someone with no knowledge of financial matters.

NOBODY knows where oil prices are headed OR the timetable of their movements. That's why there is a Futures Market for oil.

The Commodities Market -- Futures -- allows you to pick a future oil price and a time frame. If you look at the Oil Futures Market, you will see you can choose from many prices over many time periods.

You can look at the existing Futures Contracts and see what Speculators believe. You can also see the "hedging" process in action.

Airlines buy Futures Contracts on Jet Fuel to protect themselves from price increases. If prices drop, they lose the money they spent to buy the Futures Contracts.

Anyway, Wall Street is not a horse race or a card game or a coin flip. It is a continuum.

You seem interested in making a Bet, rather than an investment, which is typical of people who know nothing about these matters.

Here's my bet: I'll bet you one dollar that oil NEVER reaches $200 a barrel.

You stated you believe oil will sell for $150 a barrel by December 2008.

Do you mean to state that oil will rise to $150 by December 2008 and remain at that level or higher?

Or do you mean it might simply touch $150 before dropping back. Big difference.

Since you believe oil will pass $200 a barrel, it appears that you believe it is heading to $150 and higher.

It is certainly reasonable to think oil will trade at $150 a barrel at least once, and perhaps go higher for a brief period. But this is a case where US presidential politics plays a big role.

Obama is opposed to more oil drilling in the US. Thus, if he is elected, you have a greater chance of being right about the direction and price of oil.

However, if McCain is elected, oil prices will drop -- if Congress overcomes its idiocy and permits a big increase in domestic oil drilling.

Meanwhile, based on your apparent attitude, it seems you WANT higher oil prices. But I can't imagine why.

Oil is a commodity that is priced on its Supply/Demand balance. If the Supply of oil increases, prices will drop. It's that simple.

You said:

"Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve attempts to keep the economy moving along. The key concern for many years has been "inflation". For the last few decades, the Fed has acted to keep inflation low because that seems to be the best strategy for overall economic health in the US economy.

But the Fed does not control Global Oil Prices. It does not control Domestic Oil Consumption. It really controls little more than Short-Term Interest Rates.

As far as future oil prices are concerned, you show the usual naivete of someone with no knowledge of financial matters"

----
Slappz you're so caught up in telling me about the textbook shit but you're missing the main point!

If the Fed controls the money supply, how much money is printed or how much money is in circulation, then they control the VALUE of the money. Less money, more value, more money, less value (inflation).

Right now we are in a period of more money, less value! So it takes more dollars to buy the same amount of OIL! Have you been to the grocery store?? I bet you've seen huge jumps in prices for basic goods.

It's really simple youngin.

jay, you really need a basic course in Economics.

You said:

"If the Fed controls the money supply, how much money is printed or how much money is in circulation, then they control the VALUE of the money. Less money, more value, more money, less value (inflation)."

I think you over-estimate the Fed's activities.

The Fed does NOT directly control the money supply. But it absolutely guides the way the money supply goes.

If the Fed keeps short-term rates low, THEN businesses will BORROW money. The act of BORROWING is the thing that expands the money supply.

If NO borrowing occurs, then the money supply will remain static. Thus, to REDUCE borrowing, the Fed raises rates. But even in the early 1980s, when short-term rates were well over 12%, borrowing continued. But inflation was brought way down.

At the same time, oil was at its previous historic peak -- at the time it was $35 a barrel. Adjusted for inflation, that $35 figure is probably equal to $100 today.

However, it seems that in your mind any level of inflation is bad. It's not. Low inflation has been good news for years and years.

When prices go the other way -- down -- we experience DEFLATION, which, in its worst form leads to a depression. The Great Depression of the 1930s was a period of massive DEFLATION.

That was bad news for most people and great news for some.

Roosevelt demanded that businesses maintain their pay levels. He opposed wage cuts. As prices fell and companies were unable to meet payrolls, they had no choice but to fire people, eventually putting 25% of the workforce in the street.

Prices fell and fell. Everyone who kept his job had a very different experience. Those people saw their wages remain flat while prices dropped.

That has the same effect as getting a raise. Thus, economists learned that a little inflation is a much lesser evil than wholesale price deflation.

Meanwhile, food prices vary. Some items are getting more expensive. I have my own "basket of goods" that I use to measure the impact of price changes on me.

Here in Brooklyn, NY chicken prices have changed very little. Chicken sells for less than a dollar a pound. However, the price rises if you choose to buy skinless breasts.

If you want to examine food prices, then look at the idiotic farm price supports for corn.

Corn is the base commodity for ethanol. Congress has given subsidies to ethanol makers and slapped a big tariff on imported ethanol. Hence, corn growers are selling a lot of corn to the ethanol industry at higher and higher prices while selling less to the other segments of the agricultural world that use corn to feed livestock.

All I can suggest is to shop smarter and avoid buying crap products like soda and prepared foods.

I happen to like liver. It's cheap. But many people don't like it.

I like brewed coffee. Brands like Starbucks and other premium names cost a lot. But where I shop, I just bought 3 10-ounce bags of Caribe espresso for $5 -- $1.67 per bag, which is less than the price of a single cup of coffee purchased at a Starbucks coffeshop.

There is a low-priced clothing store that has recently attracted media interest: Steve & Barry's, I believe is the name.

Every item sells for LESS than $10. Meanwhile, a new IKEA opened in Brooklyn yesterday.

My point is this -- the free market will always give you alternatives to expensive goods -- when possible.

Thus, if you want cheaper gasoline, you must support a vast expansion of oil drilling in the US, the construction of a few new oil refineries and the construction of new nuclear power plants. If you want lower prices, there is NO alternative to increasing the supply of power and the diversity of sources. But wind and solar will NEVER add more than a tiny contribution to overall power consumption in the world.

Meanwhile, you still have not answered my question about the Holocaust. Do you believe Ahmadinejad -- that it never happened? Or do you believe that 6 million Jews were killed by Nazi Germany?

"I think you over-estimate the Fed's activities.

The Fed does NOT directly control the money supply. But it absolutely guides the way the money supply goes.

If the Fed keeps short-term rates low, THEN businesses will BORROW money. The act of BORROWING is the thing that expands the money supply."

____

Stop ducking the point. You need a lesson on fractional reserve banking. If they cut rates, which they've been doing this year all the way down to 2%, the monetary supply expands. More money, less value.

Are you disputing the graph of the value of the dollar? You don't have to be a rocket scientist to notice as the Fed cut rates these past few years, the value of the USD has dropped.

On the holocaust, yes I believe it happened, the only thing nobody knows is exactly how many Jews were killed... but who cares about the amount? Jews were victims of mass murder and that's a crime!

If you know about religion you know that antisemitism has gone on forever... but that's besides the point.

I don't wanna talk about that though you can read an analysis of Ahmadinejad's opinion here and you will realize this has gone on forever even before him.

jay,

I'm well aware of how the banking industry operates. Just so you understand, I've been an analyst on Wall Street and I have covered the banking system on-and-off over the years.

It seems you think that IF the Fed lowers short-term rates the dollar loses value and IF the Fed raises short-term rates, the dollar gains value.

There is a close relationship, but, like everything in economics, it's not quite that simple.

US interest rates and the value of the US dollar affect the entire world.

If the value of the dollar rises, then the price of oil will rise for holders of non-dollar currencies.

The Fed takes steps to expand the money supply as strategy to keep inflation low. Expanding the money supply is accomplished by lowering the Fed Funds Rate, lowering the Discount Rate, and/or buying government securities.

Despite low overall inflation, certain commodities -- oil, for example -- are much more expensive. Theoretically, if the Fed lowers short-term rates, oil-drilling companies would have more capital to fund more oil drilling, which would increase the supply of oil and lead to lower oil prices.

BUT, OPEC has considerable power over the global production of oil, and hence, oil prices.

Since oil companies cannot expand their operations in the US, we are forced to buy more imported oil, which becomes more expensive due to the weak dollar -- but the dollar is weakening for a lot of reasons in addition to low short-term intrest rates.

Our rising national debt contributes to the big picture.

However, if we were to drill in every place oil is known to exist in the US, we would at least be selling expensive oil to ourselves WHILE pushing down the international price AND strengthening our economy, which would lead to a stronger dollar.

On the other hand, the Fed has to balance the impact of a cheap dollar against everything else. When the dollar is low, we export much more. Thus, many US businesses are seeing good times in their export divisions.

As I've said, you need a basic course in Economics. Looking at one page about fractional banking or one page about US Monetary Policy is not much.

Bottom line: the entire world needs as much cheap energy as possible. It is needed NOW. Cheap energy leads to lower prices for everything else.

As for the Holocaust, once again, you show your limited understanding. It absolutely matters about the number of victims. One of the chief anti-Semitic arguments is to claim that only several hundred thousand Jews were killed by Nazi Germany. This claim attempts to minimize the issue and reclassify it from Genocide to a mere Mass Murder.

In fact, the Nazis, like all Germans, were such good record keepers that we know the 6-million deaths is an accurate number.

Anyway, I am well aware of the history of anti-Semitism, but it is clear that this is something relatively new to you. Ahmadinejad is just one of the many crackpots to spew idiocy on this topic.

However, when a national leader willingly, ignorantly and stupidly lies about an historical event that the German government has acknowledged in full, you can be sure he will lie about anything else that concerns him.

Counter this:

"The few who understand the system, will either be so interested from it's profits or so dependant on it's favors, that there will be no opposition from that class." -- Rothschild Brothers of London, 1863

"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws."-- Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild

"Most Americans have no real understanding of the operation of the international money lenders. The accounts of the Federal Reserve System have never been audited. It operates outside the control of Congress and manipulates the credit of the United States." -- Sen. Barry Goldwater (Rep. AR)

"Whoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce." -- James A. Garfield, President of the United States

"Banks lend by creating credit. (ledger-entry credit, monetized debt) They create the means of payment out of nothing." -- Ralph M. Hawtrey, Secretary of the British Treasury

"To expose a 15 Trillion dollar ripoff of the American people by the stockholders of the 1000 largest corporations over the last 100 years will be a tall order of business." -- Buckminster Fuller

"Every Congressman, every Senator knows precisely what causes inflation...but can't, [won't] support the drastic reforms to stop it [repeal of the Federal Reserve Act] because it could cost him his job." -- Robert A. Heinlein, Expanded Universe

"It is well that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning." -- Henry Ford

"The regional Federal Reserve banks are not government agencies. ...but are independent, privately owned and locally controlled corporations." -- Lewis vs. United States, 680 F. 2d 1239 9th Circuit 1982

"We have, in this country, one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever known. I refer to the Federal Reserve Board. This evil institution has impoverished the people of the United States and has practically bankrupted our government. It has done this through the corrupt practices of the moneyed vultures who control it." -- Congressman Louis T. McFadden in 1932 (Rep. Pa)

"The Federal Reserve banks are one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever seen. There is not a man within the sound of my voice who does not know that this nation is run by the International bankers." -- Congressman Louis T. McFadden (Rep. Pa)

"Some [Most] people think the Federal Reserve Banks are the United States government's institutions. They are not government institutions. They are private credit monopolies which prey upon the people of the United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign swindlers." -- Congressional Record 12595-12603 -- Louis T. McFadden, Chairman of the Committee on Banking and Currency (12 years) June 10, 1932

"[Every circulating FRN] represents a one dollar debt to the Federal Reserve system." -- Money Facts, House Banking and Currency Committee

jay,

First, I doubt you understand any of the quotes you provided.

However, the first two quotes boil down to the admission that IF one person could control a nation's money for his personal benefit, he'd have vast wealth. This statement is proven every day in dictatorships around the world.

The first two quotes are bascially laments that such a thing is not possible in the economy of a democratic nation. The James Garfield quote is more of the same. But I doubt you understand the quotes.

Meanwhile, it is standard practice for anti-Semites to use quotes from the Rothschilds to support their crazy views that Jews run the finances of the world. But I doubt you know about those smears.

Barry Goldwater was a fascinating figure in American history. But that does not mean his statements are all true. In fact, his statement about the Federal Reserve is wrong.

The statement from Ralph Hawtrey is simply stupid. Only someone with ZERO knowledge of banking and credit would believe it.

Buckminster Fuller's statement is equally ridiculous. He was an architect and social critic. NOT an economist or financial person, which means he has NO basis for his silly claim.

Robert Heinlein was a SCIENCE FICTION writer, which means it was his personal ambition to make statements through his writing that captured people's FEELINGS without any regard for FACT. The line may well be a statement made by one of his characters in one of his books. Meaningless with respect to real-world economics.

Henry Ford mass produced cars for America. He understood two aspects of the country: how to build something that would appeal to millions AND how to help them buy it. The REVOLUTION he caused was the revolution of freedom derived from giving EVERYONE the ability to go almost ANYWHERE. Such widespread mobility was a new thing in 1900.

The claim that the Federal Reserve is NOT a government agency made in Lewis vs. United States, 680 F. 2d 1239 9th Circuit 1982 is false.

Meanwhile, the banking industry is heavily regulated and subjected to constant oversight and review. The problems that occur are proof that no matter how diligent we are, things can go wrong.

The three quotes attributed to Louis McFadden who claims that "moneyed vultures", "international bankers" and "foreign swindlers" control the Federal Reserve are vile examples of anti-Semitic charges that have been repeated by ignorant people for many years.

The terms "moneyed vultures", "international bankers" and "foreign swindlers" are terms used to describe Jews.

Based on the collection of quotes you gave, it's clear to me you found them on an anti-Semitic website. Henry Ford was famous for two things: building cars and hating Jews. The Rothschilds are Jews who have been smeared by anti-Semites for centuries.

Anyway, like I said, you need a course in Economics. But I see you'd rather accept the screwball idiocy of anti-Semites instead of learning the basics of modern economies.

Remember this: Dictators BAD; Democracy GOOD.

Wow so they're retards and you know everything... The federal reserve is about as federal as Federal Express... Have you noticed I stopped arguing with you because you don't know/understand the simplest things?

Court Rules Federal Reserve is Privately Owned
Case Reveals Fed's Status as a Private Institution

Below are excerpts from a court case proving the Federal Reserve system's status. As you will see, the court ruled that the Federal Reserve Banks are "independent, privately owned and locally controlled corporations", and there is not sufficient "federal government control over 'detailed physical performance' and 'day to day operation'" of the Federal Reserve Bank for it to be considered a federal agency:
"It is clear from this that in some circumstances, the Federal Reserve Bank can be considered a government "instrumentality", but cannot be considered a "federal agency", because the term carries with it the assumption that the federal government has direct oversight over what the Fed does. Of course it does not, because most people who know about this subject know that the Fed is "politically independent."

The only area where one might disagree with the judge's decision is where he states that the Fed furthers the federal government's fiscal policy, and therefore performs an important governmental function. While we would like to think that the federal government and the Fed work cooperatively with each other, and they may on occasion, the Fed is by no means required to do so. One example is where Rep. Wright Patman, Chairman of the House Banking Committee, said in the Congressional Record back in the '60s, that depending on the temperament of the Fed's Chairman, sometimes the Fed worked with the government's fiscal policy, and other times either went in the complete opposite direction, or threatens to do so in order to influence policy.

The common claim that the Fed is accountable to the government, because it is required to report to Congress on its activities annually, is incorrect. The reports to Congress mean little unless what the Chairman reports can be verified by complete records. From its founding to this day, the Fed has never undergone a complete independent audit. Congress time after time has requested that the Fed voluntarily submit to a complete audit, and every time, it refuses.

Those in the know about the Fed, realize that it does keep certain records secret. The soon-to-be-former Chairman of the House Banking Committee, Henry Gonzales, has spoken on record repeatedly about how the Fed at one point says it does not have certain requested records, and then it is found through investigation that it in fact does have those records, or at least used to. It would appear that the Fed Chairman can say anything he wants to to Congress, and they'll have to accept what he says, because verification of what he says is not always possible."

Lewis v. United States, 680 F.2d 1239 (1982)

Not a claim. A RULING.

If you don't respect these following people's knowledge, you're just a retard.


Federal Reserve Quotes
"History records that the money changers have used every form of abuse, intrigue, deceit, and violent means possible to maintain their control over governments by controlling money and it's issuance."
- James Madison

Quotes on the Federal Reserve
"In the colonies we issue our own money. It is called Colonial Script. We issue it in proper proportion to the demands of trade and industry to make the products pass easily from the producers to the consumers... In this manner, creating for ourselves our own paper money, we control its purchasing power, and we have no interest to pay to no one."
- Benjamin Franklin

Quotes on the Federal Reserve
"I sincerely believe . . . that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale."
- Thomas Jefferson, 1816 letter to John Taylor

"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" -- Mayer Amschel
Bauer Rothschild

Andrew Jackson
"If Congress has the right [it doesn't] to issue paper money [currency], it was given to them to be
used by...[the government] and not to be delegated to individuals or corporations" -- President
Andrew Jackson, Vetoed Bank Bill of 1836

Federal Reserve Quotes
"Some people think the Federal Reserve Banks are the United States government's institutions. They are not government institutions. They are private credit monopolies which prey upon the people of the United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign swindlers."
- Congressional Record 12595-12603 - Louis T. McFadden, Chairman of the Committee on Banking and Currency, June 10, 1932

Federal Reserve Quotes
"The modern Banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented. Banks can in fact inflate, mint and unmint the modern ledger-entry currency."
- Major L .L. B. Angus

Federal Reserve Quotes
"People who will not turn a shovel full of dirt… nor contribute a pound of material, will collect more money from the United States than will the People who supply all the material and do all the work. This is the terrible thing about interest ...But here is the point: If the Nation can issue a dollar bond it can issue a dollar bill. The element that makes the bond good makes the bill good also. The difference between the bond and the bill is that the bond lets the money broker collect twice the amount of the bond and an additional 20%. Whereas the currency, the honest sort provided by the Constitution pays nobody but those who contribute in some useful way. It is absurd to say our Country can issue bonds and cannot issue currency. Both are promises to pay, but one fattens the usurer and the other helps the People. If the currency issued by the People were no good, then the bonds would be no good, either. It is a terrible situation when the Government, to insure the National Wealth, must go in debt and submit to ruinous interest charges at the hands of men who control the fictitious value of gold. Interest is the invention of Satan."
- Thomas Edison

Federal Reserve Quotes
"By this means government may secretly and unobserved, confiscate the wealth of the people, and not one man in a million will detect the theft."
- John Maynard Keynes

Quotes on the Federal Reserve
"The result of this whole (Federal Reserve) system is massive debt at every level of society today. The banks are in debt to the depositors, and the depositors' money is loaned out and creates indebtedness to the banks. Making this system even more akin to something out of a maniac's delirium is the fact that banks, like other lenders, often have the right to seize physical property if its paper money is not repaid."
- William Bramley

"Whoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and
commerce." -- James A. Garfield, President of the United States

"A great industrial nation is controlled by it's system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the world--no longer a government of free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of small groups of dominant men." --President Woodrow Wilson

jay,

Yeah, it looks to me like you have been completely fooled.

On one hand you want a "revolution" because you believe there are deep flaws in the US government. On the other hand, you use statements from people who have been leaders of the corrupt government as "proof" for your claims.

You are unable to separate political rhetoric from fact.

As for the Federal Reserve, the argument makes the assumption that a government agency MUST operate in way that is exactly like other government agencies. However, if we apply the standard of this case to other agencies, we would find that other agencies are also not "agencies."

As for the "accounting" that people think is missing, well, the Fed publishes piles of data as well as the minutes of its meetings. Its historical record is public knowledge. Massive books about the internal workings of the Fed have been written -- see William Greider, he wrote one of the best known -- and many people on Wall Street are paid to keep an eye on everything from teh Fed.

Of course it's possible for the Fed to hold public meetings and conduct all its business in an open forum like Congress. But that would invite problems we don't need.

Let me remind you that the US Supreme Court is the court that upheld the rights of slave owners in the 1857 Dred Scott case. The Supreme Court has also awarded women the right to kill their unborn children. In other words, the Supreme Court is capable of making mistakes.

By the way, both slavery and abortion were rationalized the same way by the Supreme Court. In the case of slaves and unborn children, the court sidestepped the decision on the actual issue by saying that neither slaves nor unborn children were human. Therefore, since neither were human, neither was protected by the Constitution. End of debate.